1) Know the enemy: common emotional traps

• Chasing losses: “I’ll win it back tonight.” Leads to bigger stakes, worse prices.
• FOMO/YOLO: “Everyone’s on this side… I’ll miss the move.” Chases steam, ignores price.
• Overconfidence after a heater: Looser filters, bigger units, sloppy due diligence.
• Revenge betting: Targeting a team/market that “owes” you.
• Narrative lock-in: Cherry-picking info to fit your pre-bet story, ignoring contrary signals.
• Time pressure tilt: Forcing a bet because kick-off is soon.

Tell-tale signs: elevated heart rate, rushing, switching tabs frantically, ignoring your own rules, betting outside markets you understand.

2) The STOP routine (15–60 seconds that save units)

Use this micro-protocol before every stake—and anytime you feel heat:

• S — Stop: Take hands off mouse/phone.
• T — Take a breath: 4-4-6 box breathing (inhale 4s, hold 4s, exhale 6s).
• O — Observe: Am I chasing? Is this within plan (sport, market, max exposure)?
• P — Proceed (or pass): Only proceed if the bet passes your checklist.

This tiny pause converts emotion into a binary decision aligned with your plan.

3) The 7-point pre-bet checklist

• Edge source clear? (model number, market read, or price mismatch)
• Min. price met? (If price < target, no bet.)
• Unit sizing ok? (Within your risk plan; adjust for correlation/longshot.)
• Event exposure cap respected? (e.g., ≤3u per game.)
• Book/limit fit? (Can you get on without moving the line?)
• Recency bias check: Would I take this tomorrow at the same price?
• Loggable? (If you’d be embarrassed to log it, don’t place it.)

If any answer is “no,” you pass. Screenshots of this list near your desk help under pressure.

4) If-Then rules that auto-prevent tilt

• If I drop −3u in a day, then I stop for 24h (no exceptions).
• If I lose 2 bets on the same game, then I won’t add more exposure to that game.
• If I’m below sleep 6h or above 2 drinks, then no live betting.
• If a price steam-moves past my target, then I don’t chase it (set a new alert).

You’re removing willpower from the loop.

5) Focus on process metrics (CLV & decision quality), not outcomes

• Track closing line value (CLV) on liquid markets: did you beat the close?
• Tag bets as A/B/C quality (data-backed vs. speculative).
• Review weekly: size down any bucket with poor CLV or sloppy notes.

A clean process keeps you calm during downswings because you can see you’re still doing the right things.

6) Session rules that limit emotional damage

• Time-boxed sessions: e.g., 45–90 minutes with 10-minute breaks.
• Pre-session plan: What sports/markets? Unit size today? Max daily exposure?
• No “mid-tilt” markets: If you didn’t plan to bet same-game props, don’t add them mid-session.
• Two-tab discipline: One for lines, one for notes—no endless news scrolling.
• End each session with a cool-down note: what went well, one improvement, red flags.

7) The Drawdown Playbook (what to do at −10%, −20%, −30%)

• −10%: Cut unit size by 25%; review top 20 losing bets for pattern.
• −20%: Cut unit size by 50%; freeze new markets; bet only A-quality signals.
• −30%: Full audit; pause a week if needed; rebuild confidence on micro-stakes.

Write this playbook now, not during the downswing.

8) Cognitive bias spotter’s guide

Confirmation bias: You only collect data that supports your pick.

Fix: Write a “why not” paragraph for every bet (injuries, weather, matchup risk).

Sunk cost fallacy: “I’m already down on this team—one more.”

Fix: Each bet must stand alone; prior losses are irrelevant.

Availability bias: Overweighting the last game/news headline.

Fix: Use rolling season priors; don’t overreact to one data point.

Gambler’s fallacy: “Due to win.”

Fix: Independent events don’t “owe” outcomes; price > narrative.

9) Emotional first aid kit (in the moment)

• Physiology reset (2 minutes): Stand up, shoulder rolls, 10 slow breaths.
• Grounding (30 seconds): Name 5 things you see, 4 feel, 3 hear—pulls you out of rumination.
• Replace the urge: When you want to click, log one sentence in your journal instead.
• Time-out app blocker: Disable books/exchanges for 60 minutes after a stop-loss.

10) Build an identity that beats impulse

• Process identity: “I am the bettor who never chases price.”
• Minimum viable discipline: One non-negotiable rule (e.g., I never bet above 2u).
• Accountability: Share a weekly snapshot (stakes, CLV, rule breaks) with a trusted friend or private group.

Identity rules hold when motivation fades.

11) Simple tools you can steal

A) One-page betting rubric

• Market/league:
• Price (target vs. current):
• Edge source (model/angle):
• Correlation check (Y/N):
• Unit size:
• Pre-mortem: “How does this lose?”
• Final decision (Yes/No) & why:

B) Red-flag checklist (tick any = pass)

• Betting to feel better / prove something
• Price moved past target
• No time to write 2 lines of reasoning
• On tilt (angry, anxious, rushed)

C) Weekly review template

• Winrate & CLV by market
• Top 5 good decisions (even if lost)
• Top 5 bad decisions (even if won)
• One rule to refine this week

12) Live betting without losing your head

• Pre-define in-play triggers (pace/efficiency thresholds) before match start.
• Hard time caps for live markets (e.g., only Q1–Q3 in NBA).
• No laddering just because you’re watching—stick to pre-set max exposure.

13) Breathing room for longshots & parlays

• Cap longshots (≥4.00) at ≤0.5u unless edge is audited.
• Parlays are entertainment unless both legs are independently +EV; keep them tiny.
• Never “make up” slippage with bigger parlays—classic tilt disguise.

14) When not to bet

• Tired, angry, or after alcohol/substances
• After a major life stressor
• When you can’t articulate the edge in 2–3 lines
• When price is worse than your model’s cutoff

Skipping bad bets is an edge.

15) Responsible play

Only stake what you can afford to lose. If betting is causing stress or harm, pause and seek help. Age limits and local laws apply (18+ / 21+ by region).

TL;DR

• Insert a 30–60s STOP routine before every stake.
• Run the 7-point checklist; pass if any “no.”
• Use If-Then rules to auto-block tilt.
• Track CLV & decision quality, not just wins/losses.
• Prewrite a drawdown playbook and stick to it.